Online electronics growth hits 20 per cent as festive demand shifts early

MUMBAI: The festive shopping cart may have arrived before the festive season itself. India’s online electronics market has accelerated sharply in the first half of 2026, but the early rush could leave fewer shoppers waiting for the traditional Diwali buying window.

Redseer’s India Online Retail 2026 presentation shows online electronics swinging from a 5 per cent contraction in H1 2024-25 to 22 per cent growth in H1 2025-26, a 27-percentage-point turnaround that made electronics one of the important contributors to the broader e-commerce acceleration. Electronics now accounts for 13 per cent of online retail.

The presentation contains two different cuts of the same period: its broader comparison puts H1 2025-26 electronics growth at 22 per cent, while a dedicated trend chart records 20 per cent. Both figures are retained here as reported in their respective cuts rather than treated as a contradiction.

The rebound, however, has arrived with a catch. Electronics grew 14 per cent in 2022 and 19 per cent in 2023, before slowing to 3 per cent in both 2024 and 2025; the jump to 20 per cent in H1 2025-26 therefore represents a sharp change in pace, but Redseer expects growth to moderate to 12-15 per cent in H2 2026.

The presentation puts H2 2025 growth at 7 per cent against 22 per cent in H1 2026 and projects festive growth at 15-17 per cent. Its analysis suggests that a significant amount of demand was pulled into the first half, meaning the second half faces a degree of correction even as the festive period remains important.

That changes the advertising equation, too. The headline H1 growth number may make electronics look like the obvious festive prize, but a portion of the consumers behind that growth have already made their purchases, leaving brands to chase a somewhat smaller pool during the traditional shopping season.

Several forces helped bring that spending forward, with the September 2025 GST reduction on large appliances providing one of the biggest pushes. The cut from 28 per cent to 18 per cent extended into H1 2026 and lifted demand, although some of that increase represented purchases that would otherwise have happened later in the year.

Component inflation added another nudge. DRAM and NAND memory prices rose by more than 100 per cent, encouraging consumers anticipating brand-led price revisions to bring forward purchases of PCs, laptops and tablets.

Weather conditions and inventory clearance also contributed to the early momentum. The result is effectively a split festive shopper: one group that has already bought, partly to avoid higher prices, and another that is still holding its wallet for the traditional festive window.

Price pressures are unlikely to disappear once the festive lights come on. According to PTI, leading appliance and consumer electronics manufacturers are raising prices from 1 October, marking the industry’s third round of increases in 2026.

The increases are being linked by executives quoted by PTI to higher copper, steel, aluminium, crude oil derivatives and freight costs, along with currency volatility associated with the West Asia crisis. Air-conditioner prices are expected to rise 5-8 per cent, while some manufacturers are increasing prices of washing machines, refrigerators and LED televisions by 3-4 per cent.

Blue Star, Godrej Appliances, Haier, Daikin and Super Plastronics have confirmed or implemented hikes ranging from 4-10 per cent, PTI reported. Industry sources also told the agency that LG and Bosch Home Comfort, which owns Hitachi-branded air conditioners, have increased AC prices by about 5 per cent, while Panasonic is evaluating market conditions.

Copper has become particularly important to the air-conditioner pricing equation. Haier India president NS Satish told PTI that copper has risen from $8,000-9,000 per metric ton last year to $14,500, while each air conditioner uses around 3-4 kg of the metal.

Haier plans a 5 per cent increase on room air conditioners from 1 October and 2-3 per cent increases on LED televisions and washing machines. If input costs continue climbing, the company expects cumulative increases of around 15 per cent by January 2027.

Daikin managing director and CMD Kanwaljeet Jawa told PTI that the company raised prices by 8-10 per cent from 16 September, with copper costs up almost 25-35 per cent. The combination of higher input costs and an already front-loaded electronics market puts manufacturers in a delicate balancing act between protecting margins and keeping festive demand moving.

Blue Star managing director B Thiagarajan told PTI that costs are roughly 15 per cent higher than during last year’s festive period, although GST benefits of around 10 per cent reduce the net impact on buyers to about 5 per cent. SPPL, which manufactures Thomson, Kodak and Blaupunkt televisions, plans a 7 per cent TV price increase after October, according to director Avneet Singh Marwah.

The pressure could be sharper for some screen sizes. Videotex director Arjun Bajaj told PTI that smaller televisions could see price increases of up to 20 per cent, while larger screens could rise by up to 10 per cent.

There is, however, an inventory cushion that could soften the immediate impact. PTI reported that pre-sales during August and September have left dealers with stock bought at earlier prices, meaning the higher costs will not necessarily reach consumers all at once.

Kamal Nandi, business head and executive vice president of the appliance business at Godrej Enterprises Group, told PTI that price increases would come at different points between October and November. He said existing inventory could cover Diwali, with stocks lasting around one to one-and-a-half months, before higher prices become more visible after the festival.

The timing matters because the period from Onam through Dussehra and Diwali accounts for around 30-40 per cent of annual appliance sales, according to sector reports cited by PTI. Haier’s Satish said avoiding price increases could hurt margins, while raising them could affect sales, highlighting the balancing act manufacturers face during the most important selling period of the year.

Marwah similarly told PTI that higher prices could negatively affect festive sales as consumers typically expect discounts and offers during the season. The presence of offers, however, does not necessarily mean consumers will see lower absolute prices if the underlying product price has already increased.

So far, there are signs that consumers are willing to absorb at least some of the increase when the perceived value holds up. Paramjeet Singh Mehta, product and marketing head for consumer and gaming PCs at ASUS India, said sharp component cost increases have pushed prices up by 50-60 per cent in some segments, while the company recorded more than 20 per cent growth during the first eight months of the year.

That suggests the purchase decision is moving beyond the sticker price. Financing options, warranty extensions, serviceability and durability can all become part of the value equation when consumers are confronted with a more expensive device.

The changing festive mix reinforces the point that electronics may remain a major online category without dominating the season to the same extent. Redseer estimates that electronics’ contribution to festive e-commerce will fall from 18 per cent in 2025 to 17 per cent in 2026, even as the category is expected to grow 15-17 per cent.

Mobiles are also expected to occupy a smaller share of the festive online basket, falling from 33 per cent in 2025 to 29 per cent in 2026, with growth projected at only 5-7 per cent. Together, electronics and mobiles are expected to account for 46 per cent of festive e-commerce in 2026, down from 51 per cent in 2025 and below the 50 per cent mark.

The wider online retail mix is moving in other directions. Mobiles account for 14 per cent of online shopping and improved only marginally from a 4 per cent contraction to flat growth, while home and furniture accelerated from 21 per cent to 33 per cent, beauty and personal care from 29 per cent to 38 per cent, groceries from 49 per cent to 51 per cent and fashion from 11 per cent to 19 per cent.

Electronics’ move from a 5 per cent contraction to 22 per cent growth is therefore one of the most dramatic shifts shown in the presentation, even though it is not the largest category growth on the chart. The bigger story is that the online shopping basket is broadening, reducing electronics’ relative weight even as its absolute market continues to expand.

Quick commerce could add another twist to that mix. Redseer estimates that mobiles and electronics could account for 14-15 per cent of quick-commerce orders during the festive season, more than double their regular contribution of around 7-8 per cent.

That puts electronics in an unusual position: the same platforms used to order groceries and last-minute gifts could increasingly become destinations for phones, accessories and other electronic products. For advertisers, that creates another point of contact with consumers who may not be following the traditional path from consideration to e-commerce marketplace.

The festive electronics story, then, is less about whether demand exists and more about when it has already been captured. H1 2026 has delivered the big rebound, but rising costs, pre-bought inventory, shifting category shares and the expansion of quick commerce mean the Diwali opportunity will have to be fought for in a market where part of the audience has already checked out.