India’s e-commerce market set to reach $250 billion by 2030

MUMBAI: The online shopping cart is getting fuller and India’s digital marketplace is preparing for its biggest checkout yet. India’s e-commerce market is expected to nearly triple from around $90 billion today to $250 billion by 2030, according to a joint report by Google and Deloitte, signalling a new chapter in the country’s digital retail story. The report, The $250 Billion Commerce Frontier, paints a picture of an industry no longer powered solely by internet access, but by a potent mix of changing consumer habits, artificial intelligence, creator influence and lightning-fast deliveries.

At the heart of this growth is a fresh wave of shoppers. With 150 million new consumers expected to come online over the next few years, Gen Z is projected to account for 45 per cent of total online spending, emerging as one of the most influential forces shaping the future of retail. Unlike previous generations, these consumers are demanding shopping experiences that are personalised, digital-first and tailored to their interests.

The report identifies four major forces driving the next phase of growth inspired, intelligent, instant and immersive which together could contribute nearly $100 billion to the sector’s expansion by the end of the decade.

One of the biggest shifts is expected to come from creator-led commerce. By 2030, creators are projected to influence 30 per cent of all retail spending, while one in every 10 online purchases could be linked directly to creator storefronts. The trend is expected to be particularly powerful in smaller cities, where content creators are increasingly becoming trusted guides for first-time online shoppers.

The battle for speed is also accelerating. Quick commerce, which began as a grocery delivery phenomenon, is forecast to become a $50 billion market by 2030. More notably, categories beyond groceries are joining the fast lane, with fashion, beauty and electronics expected to contribute 45 per cent of spending in the segment.

Artificial intelligence, meanwhile, is quietly becoming the industry’s most valuable employee. According to the report, AI-led improvements across product discovery, customer decision-making and supply chains could boost retail profitability by 30–35 per cent. Companies are already rolling out AI-powered shopping features, signalling a future where algorithms may know what consumers want before they do.

Shopping itself is also becoming more immersive. The report found that one in three Indian consumers now prefers virtual try-ons, while a majority are willing to pay a premium for technology-enabled shopping experiences that make online purchases more interactive and personalised.

The findings suggest that India’s next e-commerce boom will not be driven by scale alone. Success will increasingly depend on how effectively businesses blend AI, creator ecosystems and seamless fulfilment to create experiences that feel less like transactions and more like tailored journeys.

If the projections hold true, the next decade could see India’s digital marketplace transform from a convenience-led platform into a technology-powered commerce powerhouse.