iWorld
India’s mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold by ’21: Cisco-VNI
MUMBAI: By 2021, more members of the global population[1] will be using mobile phones (5.5 billion) than bank accounts (5.4 billion), running water (5.3 billion), or landlines (2.9 billion), according to the 11th annual Cisco Visual Networking Index™ (VNI) Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016 to 2021). Strong growth in mobile users, smartphones and Internet of Things (IoT) connections as well as network speed improvements and mobile video consumption are projected to increase mobile data traffic seven-fold over the next five years.
By 2021, Cisco projects mobile data traffic will achieve the following milestones:
Mobile data traffic to represent 20 percent of total IP traffic—up from just 8 percent of total IP traffic in 2016 1.5 mobile devices per capita. Nearly 12 billion mobile-connected devices (up from 8 billion and 1.1 per capita in 2016), including M2M modules Mobile network connection speeds will increase three-fold from 6.8 Mbps in 2016 to 20.4 Mbps by 2021 Machine-to-machine (M2M) connections will represent 29 percent (3.3 billion) of total mobile connections—up from 5 percent (780 million) in 2016. M2M will be the fastest growing mobile connection type as global IoT applications continue to gain traction in consumer and business environments 4G will support 58 percent of total mobile connections by 2021—up from 26 percent in 2016, and will account for 79 percent of total mobile data traffic The total number of smartphones (including phablets) will be over 50 percent of global devices and connections (6.2 billion)—up from 3.6 billion in 2016
The explosion of mobile applications and adoption of mobile connectivity by end users is fueling the growth of 4G, soon to be followed by 5G growth. Cisco and other industry experts anticipate large-scale deployments of 5G infrastructures to begin by 2020. Mobile carriers will need the innovative speed, low latency, and dynamic provisioning capabilities that 5G networks are expected to deliver not just increasing subscriber demands, but also new services trends across mobile, residential, and business markets. Cisco forecasts that 5G will account for 1.5 percent of total mobile data traffic by 2021, and will generate 4.7 times more traffic than the average 4G connection and 10.7 times more traffic than the average 3G connection.
“With the proliferation of IoT, live mobile video, augmented and virtual reality applications, and more innovative experiences for consumer and business users alike, 5G technology will have significant relevance not just for mobility but rather for networking as a whole,” said Doug Webster, Vice President of Service Provider Marketing at Cisco. “As a result, broader and more extensive architectural transformations involving programmability and automation will also be needed to support the capabilities 5G enables, and to address not just today’s demands but also the extensive possibilities on the horizon.”
Cisco India & SAARC managing director – service provider business Sanjay Kaul says,
“As India leaps towards a digital economy, 2016 alone saw a huge growth in mobile traffic – by 76% from last year and, by 2021 consumer mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold at a CAGR of 49% y-o-y. Much of this growth will be fueled by massive consumer adoption of smartphones, IoT, smart devices and use of machine-to-machine connections with an estimated 1,380 million mobile-connected devices by 2021. As the Internet of Everything gains momentum, we are clearly headed towards a new era in Internet communications, with M2M connections predicted to increase 17-fold at a CAGR of 76% y-o-y. The way we use connectivity in devices today will change businesses, government, healthcare, agriculture, manufacturing, retail, transportation and other key industries.”
Key India Findings:
· In India, mobile data traffic grew 2.2 times faster than Indian fixed IP traffic in 2016
o In India, the average mobile-connected end-user device generated 251 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up 67% from 151 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average smartphone generated 559 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up from 430 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average PC generated 2,166 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up from 1,665 megabytes per month in 2015
o In India, the average tablet generated 2,228 megabytes of mobile data traffic per month in 2016, up from 1,671 megabytes per month in 2015
· In India, mobile data traffic will grow 7-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 49%.
o In India, mobile data traffic will grow 2 times faster than fixed IP traffic from 2016 to 2021
o In India, mobile data traffic will account for 29% of Indian fixed and mobile data traffic by 2021, up from 15% in 2016
o In India, 60% of mobile connections will be ‘smart’ connections by 2021, up from 19% in 2016
o In India, 93% of mobile data traffic will be ‘smart’ traffic by 2021, up from 62% in 2016
· In 2016, India’s consumer mobile data traffic grew 1.8-fold, or 76%
o In India, consumer mobile traffic will grow 7.4-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 49%
o Consumer will account for 90% of India’s mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 89% at the end of 2016
· In India, business mobile traffic will grow 7.1-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 48%
o Business will account for 10% of India’s mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 11% at the end of 2016
· In India, mobile video traffic will grow 11.5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 63%.
o In India, the number of video capable devices and connections will grow 2.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 814 million in number
o Video will be 75% of India’s mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 49% at the end of 2016.
o Video reached half of India’s mobile data traffic by year-end 2017
· In India, cloud applications will account for 91% of total mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 80% at the end of 2016
o In India, mobile cloud traffic will grow 8.4-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 53%.
· In India, 59.6 million net new devices and connections were added to the mobile network in 2016.
o In India, there will be 1,380 million mobile-connected devices by 2021, approximately 1.0 per capita for this region/country
o In India, 4G connections will grow 5-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 38%
o India’s 3G connections surpass 2G connections by 2019
o In India, 2G connections will be 19.1% of total mobile connections by 2021, compared to 75.5% in 2016
o In India, the number of smart devices will grow 4.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 823 million in number
o In India, smart devices will be 59.6% of total mobile connections by 2021, compared to 18.5% in 2016
o In India, the number of smartphones will grow 2.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 781 million in number
· In India, the number of wearable devices will reach 6.8 million in number by 2021, up from 2.5 million in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 23%
o In India, the number of wearable devices with embedded cellular connections will reach 0.8 million in number by 2021, up from 0.1 million in 2016, a compound annual growth rate of 45%
· In India, M2M traffic will grow 17-fold from 2016 to 2021, a compound annual growth rate of 76%
o In India, M2M traffic will reach 44.7 Petabytes per month by 2021
o In India, M2M will account for 2% of total mobile data traffic by 2021, compared to 1% at the end of 2016
o In India, the number of mobile-connected M2M modules will grow 6.2-fold between 2016 and 2021, reaching 91 million in number
Key findings & milestones:
1. Rise in global mobile data center traffic
· By 2021, global mobile data traffic will reach 49 exabytes per month, or 587 exabytes annually
· The forecast annual run rate of 587 exabytes of mobile data traffic for 2021 is equivalent to:
· 122 times more than all global mobile traffic generated just 10 years ago (in 2011)
· 131 trillion images (e.g. MMS)
2. High growth for live video on mobile
Mobile video will increase 8.7-fold from 2016 to 2021 and will have the highest growth rate of any mobile application category. Mobile video will represent 78 percent of all mobile traffic by 2021
Live mobile video will grow 39-fold from 2016 to 2021. Live mobile video will represent 5 percent of total mobile video traffic by 2021
3. Growth in Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR)
VR immerses users in a simulated environment. AR is an overlay of technology on the real world
Applications such as VR are adding to the adoption of wearables such as headsets
VR headsets will grow from 18 million in 2016 to nearly 100 million by 2021— a five-fold growth
Globally, VR traffic will grow 11-fold from 13.3 petabytes/month in 2016, to 140 petabytes/ month in 2021
Globally, AR traffic will grow seven-fold between 2016 and 2021, from 3 petabytes/month in 2016 to 21 petabytes /month in 2021
4. Global connected wearable devices driving M2M growth
Cisco estimates there will be 929 million wearable devices globally, growing nearly threefold from 325 million in 2016
Globally, the number of wearable devices with embedded cellular connections will reach 69 million in number by 2021—up from 11 million in 2016.
5. Mobile data traffic offload to Wi-Fi networks
In 2016, 60 percent of total mobile data traffic was offloaded; by 2021, 63 percent of total mobile data traffic will be offloaded
In 2016, monthly offload traffic (10.7 EB) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (7.2 EB)
Globally, total public Wi-Fi hotspots (including homespots) will grow six-fold from 2016 (94.0 million) to 2021 (541.6 million)
Wi-Fi traffic from both mobile devices and Wi-Fi-only devices, together, will account for almost half (49 percent) of total IP traffic by 2020, up from 42 percent in 2015.
6. Regional mobile data traffic growth (2016 – 2021)
The Middle East and Africa will have 12-fold growth
(2016: 7.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 88.4 exabytes/year)
Asia-Pacific will have 7-fold growth
(2016: 37.3 exabytes/year; 2021: 274.2 exabytes/year)
Latin America will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 5.4 exabytes/year; 2021: 34.8 exabytes/year)
Central and Eastern Europe will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 11.1 exabytes/year; 2021: 63.0 exabytes/year)
Western Europe will have 6-fold growth
(2016: 8.8 exabytes/year; 2021: 50.3 exabytes/year)
North America will have 5-fold growth
(2016: 16.9 exabytes/year; 2021: 76.8 exabytes/year)
Cisco Mobile VNI Forecast Methodology
The Cisco® VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast (2016‑2021) relies upon independent analyst forecasts and real-world mobile data usage studies. Upon this foundation are layered Cisco’s own estimates for mobile application adoption, minutes of use and transmission speeds. Key enablers such as mobile broadband speed and device computing power are also factored into Cisco mobile VNI projections and findings.
Gaming
India’s new online gaming rules take effect today, banning money games and creating a regulator
The rules, in force from today, separate e-sports from gambling and impose jail terms and stiff fines on violators
NEW DELHI: India’s online gaming sector woke up this morning to a new reality. The Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules, 2026, came into force today, May 1st, turning a year of legislative intent into enforceable law. The message from New Delhi is blunt: e-sports and social games are welcome; online money games are not.
The rules operationalise the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming (PROG) Act, passed by Parliament in August 2025. Together, they represent the most sweeping regulatory intervention India has made in its booming digital gaming market, one that generated Rs 23,200 crore in 2024 and is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 11 per cent to reach Rs 31,600 crore by 2027. The stakes, in every sense, could not be higher.
A sector out of control
The urgency behind the legislation is not hard to find. An estimated 45 crore Indians have been affected by online money gaming platforms, with losses exceeding Rs 20,000 crore. Addiction, financial ruin, money laundering, and suicides have all been linked to the sector. Seventy-seven per cent of the market’s revenues came from transaction-based games, a figure that made regulators deeply uneasy.
The government’s response, effective as of today, is categorical. Online money games, whether based on chance, skill, or any mix of the two, are banned outright. So is their advertising, promotion, and facilitation. Banks and payment processors are barred from handling related transactions. Unlawful platforms can be blocked under the Information
Technology Act, 2000.
The penalties are designed to sting. Offering or facilitating online money games can attract up to three years in jail and a fine of up to Rs 1 crore, or both. Repeat offenders face a minimum of three years, extendable to five, with fines between Rs 1 crore and Rs 2 crore. Advertising such games carries up to two years in prison and fines of up to Rs 50 lakh, with repeat violations attracting higher penalties still. Cyber cell officers at state and union territory levels, including at police station, district, and commissionerate levels, are empowered to investigate offences.
The new sheriff in town
At the centre of the new framework sits the Online Gaming Authority of India, a digital-first regulator constituted as an attached office of the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, headquartered in Delhi. It is chaired by the additional secretary of MeitY and includes joint secretary-level representation from home affairs, finance, information and broadcasting, youth affairs and sports, and law and justice, a deliberately multi-sectoral design built for a complex sector.
The authority’s powers are broad. It will maintain and publish lists of online money games, investigate complaints, issue directions, orders, and codes of practice, hear appeals on user grievances, and coordinate with financial institutions and law enforcement to ensure effective and timely action.
Its decisions on game classification are to be completed within 90 days, a time-bound commitment that industry players have welcomed after years of regulatory ambiguity. Classification can be triggered by the authority acting on its own initiative, by an application from a service provider, or by a notification from the central government. Games will be assessed on objective factors: whether stakes are involved, whether players expect monetary winnings, the revenue model, and whether in-game assets can be monetised outside the game. The outcome is recorded in a determination order specific to the game and provider.
E-sports gets its moment
While the crackdown on money gaming dominates today’s headlines, the rules also carve out a structured path for e-sports and online social games. Registration, required when notified by the central government, applies to all games offered as e-sports and is based on factors including risk to users, scale, financial transactions, and country of origin. A successful application yields a digital certificate of registration with a unique number, valid for up to ten years. Service providers must display registration details, designate a point of contact, comply with data retention requirements, and follow directions on facilitating payments.
Online money games are explicitly ineligible for recognition or registration as e-sports under the National Sports Governance Act, 2025. The separation is deliberate, and the industry has noticed.
Akshat Rathee, co-founder and managing director of NODWIN Gaming, called today’s operationalisation “encouraging,” pointing to publisher-led registration of esports titles and a time-bound determination process as creating “much-needed certainty for all stakeholders.” He added that the “continued emphasis on clearly separating esports from online money gaming is critical in preserving the integrity of competitive gaming as a skill-driven discipline.” He described it as “a proud moment to see official acknowledgement of the broader benefits of responsible esports and gaming, from building confidence, discipline, and teamwork to creating new career pathways for young talent,” and said the framework sets “a strong foundation for the ecosystem to scale in a more structured and globally competitive manner.”
Animesh Agarwal, co-founder and chief executive of S8UL, was equally bullish. “This clarity is critical in unlocking investor confidence and attracting multi-genre brands, while also enabling organisations to take a more long-term view, whether in investing in talent, scaling teams, or building globally competitive formats,” he said, adding that it “strengthens trust among audiences and mainstream stakeholders, positioning esports not just as a sport, but as a fast-growing youth entertainment category in India.”
But Agarwal urged caution on several fronts. There remains limited clarity around financial frameworks, particularly in how esports earnings are treated by banks and financial institutions. A well-defined pathway for the formal recognition or registration of esports teams is still evolving, as are structured player protections. He also called for smoother visa processes for esports athletes competing in international tournaments and for government support in developing infrastructure, including bootcamps, training facilities, and access to high-performance equipment across titles.
Vishal Parekh, chief operating officer of CyberPowerPC India, pointed to downstream effects on education and careers. “With formal recognition and policy backing, colleges and institutions are more likely to take the sector seriously, whether through dedicated esports infrastructure, training programmes, or curriculum integration,” he said, adding that this helps students view gaming as a viable career spanning roles across competitive play, content, game development, and allied industries. He noted that as esports gains prominence in global multi-sport events, the framework strengthens India’s position in international competitive gaming, and called on the ecosystem to provide the right infrastructure and access to high-performance hardware to unlock opportunities in talent development and job creation.
Protecting users, one safeguard at a time
The rules introduce a layered system of user protections calibrated to the risk profile of each game. These include age verification, age gating, time restrictions, parental controls, user reporting tools, counselling support, and fair-play and integrity monitoring. Service providers must disclose their safety features and internal grievance mechanisms when applying for determination or registration.
A two-tier grievance redressal system sits atop these safeguards. Users who are dissatisfied with a platform’s resolution can escalate to the authority within 30 days. The authority aims to dispose of such appeals within a further 30 days. A second appeal lies before the secretary of MeitY, who must also endeavour to resolve matters within 30 days. Enforcement proceedings will be conducted in digital mode wherever possible, with cases targeted for resolution within 90 days from receipt of a complaint.
Penalties under the framework are proportionate, taking into account gain from non-compliance, loss to users, the gravity of the offence, and whether violations are recurring. Mitigation efforts by service providers will also be considered when determining penalties. All penalties imposed under the Act will be credited to the Consolidated Fund of India.
The money follows the rules
For investors and founders, the implications are immediate and significant. Sagar Nair, head of incubation at LVL Zero Incubator, a 100-day sprint designed to accelerate early-stage gaming startups across India, argues that with real-money gaming now prohibited, capital will shift “away from transaction-driven models toward content-led, IP-driven, and global-first gaming businesses.” He acknowledged trade-offs: for operators with exposure to real-money formats, the market becomes more restrictive in the near term. But he argued that by clearly separating esports and non-money gaming from online money gaming, “India is positioning itself as a hub for responsible, creative, and scalable game development.” The opportunity, he said, is “to view India not just as a monetisation-first market, but as a talent, IP, and scale market,” adding that “for founders and investors willing to adapt, this shift could ultimately strengthen India’s position in the global gaming landscape.”
The government frames the wider impact in equally ambitious terms: a boost to India’s creative economy and digital exports, new career pathways for young people, protection for families from predatory platforms, and a stronger voice in global digital governance. India, it argues, offers a model for other countries grappling with the same tensions between gaming’s economic promise and its social risks, one that shows innovation and strong safeguards need not be mutually exclusive.
Whether the framework delivers on those promises will depend on enforcement, always the hardest part. But from today, the architecture is firmly in place: a regulator with teeth, a classification system with deadlines, penalties designed to deter, and a clear dividing line between games that build careers and games that destroy finances. For a sector that has grown fast and governed itself loosely, May 1st, 2026 is the day the free ride ends.
