MAM
Zenith positive about the US ad economy, not about Europe
MUMBAI: A recent report by a reputed US-based global media agency has provided some optimism in the advertising world. More so, because this agency’s forecasts on the ad economy have always been amongst the most conservative.
In its latest report, media major Zenith Optimedia, owned by Publicis of France and the UK’s Cordiant group, has actually revised its forecast for 2003 advertising revenue in the US and the projected growth estimates. The report estimates that the forecasted growth will rise to 2.2 per cent from the earlier projected figure of 1.9 per cent. In real terms, this would entail a real growth of 0.2 per cent for US advertising after taking inflation into account.
The report has also forecast a growth of three per cent in US TV Network ad spend and two per cent in radio spot spends. Zenith has also upgraded its forecast for US advertising revenue growth in 2004 to 4.5 per cent from 3.6 per cent. report
Zenith Optimedia knowledge management manager Jonathan Barnard states that the war might shift spending rather than affecting it as long as no untoward events happen.
The report adds that improved corporate profits will drive this growth in advertising. Recently, American corporations have adopted a conservative financial approach wherein they have cut down excess expenses and reduced head counts. It is believed that the corporations will reap the benefits of these moves in this year and companies will be able to spend more on advertising, says the report. However, consumers aren’t too happy as the unemployment rate that has topped six per cent.
Consumer growth is heading below one percent but the report mentions that the real driver for ad spending during recession times is corporate profitability rather than consumer spending.
US TV, radio spends:
Zenith has also revised forecasts upwards for the television spends. It now expects that network TV will be up three percent this year, to $16.3 billion. Zenith feels that the current trends in terms of ad inventory sold for the coming TV season augur well for the TV ad spends.
The report adds that the other factors pointing to a strong TV market are the “firm” scatter factor for 2003 despite consumer and stock market weakness. Certain categories such as auto, retail and refinance and real estate have either upped or maintained spends.
Zenith Optimedia has also revised upward its national spot radio forecast for 2003 to two per cent from 0 percent, with auto, telecom and retail as the key drivers.
Outlook on Europe, Japan:
The Zenith report has downgraded its forecast for the six other global advertising economies – five western European countries and Japan.
Zenith has downgraded its five-country European forecast for 2003 to 0.4 per cent from the 1.8 per cent forecast made in December. This extinguishes any hope of real growth this year in the region.
The company also downgraded 2004 forecasts for Europe to 3.2 per cent from 4.2 per cent. Forecasts for Japan have been downgraded too, to 6.8 per cent from -3.5 per cent. Zenith’s Barnard feels that this negative outlook is due to regulation and culture in western Europe and Japan.
Outlook on the US:
Zenith predicted that advertising revenues would fall by 1.4 per cent in real terms in the UK this year. In current prices, Zenith slashed its expectations for the UK to growth of 1.1 per cent from 2.1 per cent predicted as recently as December. This fall has been attributed to weak corporate confidence which has stunted advertiser confidence.
The report added that the UK market was flat in 2002, although it fell 2.1 per cent in real terms, allowing for inflation.
Zenith is also predicting UK TV advertising will grow a modest one per cent in current terms, dragged lower by advertisers switching from ITV to cheaper cable and satellite channels. However, the growth of multichannel TV, where ad breaks are longer and more frequent, was positive longer term for the sector.
Press advertising in the UK is expected to see little growth in 2003, with consumer magazines suffering in particular and only outdoor, radio and cinema likely to post real growth, Zenith added.
Reports indicate that Zenith’s views contrast with those of Aegis, a rival media buyer and research group, which predicted a 2.6 per cent rise across Europe in 2003. Most forecasters, including WPP’s Sir Martin Sorrell, expect a full recovery to wait until 2004, when the US presidential elections and the Olympic Games in Athens will boost demand.
AD Agencies
Abhay Duggal joins JioStar as director of Hindi GEC ad sales
The streaming giant brings in a seasoned revenue hand as the battle for Hindi television advertising heats up
MUMBAI: Abhay Duggal has a new desk, and JioStar has a new weapon. The media and entertainment veteran has joined JioStar as director of entertainment ad sales for Hindi general entertainment channels, adding 17 years of hard-won revenue experience to one of India’s most powerful broadcasting operations.
Duggal is no stranger to big portfolios or bruising markets. Before joining JioStar, he spent a brief stint at Republic World as deputy general manager and north regional head for ad sales. Before that, he put in three years at Enterr10 Television, where he ran the north region for Dangal TV and Dangal 2, two of India’s leading free-to-air Hindi channels. The north alone accounted for more than 50 per cent of total channel revenue on his watch, a number that tends to get attention in any sales meeting.
His longest stint was at Zee Entertainment Enterprises, where he spent over six years rising to associate director of sales. There he commanded the Hindi movies cluster across seven channels, owned more than half of north India’s revenue across flagship properties including Zee TV and &TV, and closed marquee sponsorships across the Indian Premier League, Zee Rishtey Awards and Dance India Dance. He also handled monetisation for the English movies and entertainment cluster and the global news channel WION, a portfolio that would stretch most sales teams twice his size.
Earlier in his career Duggal closed what was then a Rs 3 crore single deal at Reliance Broadcast Network, one of the largest in Indian radio at the time, before that he helped launch and monetise JAINHITS, India’s first HITS-based cable and satellite platform.
His edge, by his own account, lies in marrying data and instinct: translating audience trends, inventory signals and client demands into long-term partnerships built on cost-per-rating-point discipline rather than short-term deal chasing. In a media landscape being reshaped by streaming, fragmented attention and AI-driven advertising, that kind of rigour is increasingly rare and increasingly valuable.
JioStar, which blends the scale of Reliance’s Jio platform with the content firepower of Star, is doubling down on its advertising business at precisely the moment the Hindi GEC market is getting more competitive. Bringing in someone who has spent nearly two decades doing exactly this, across some of India’s most watched channels, is a pointed statement of intent. Duggal has spent his career turning audiences into revenue. JioStar is clearly betting he can do it again, and bigger.
