Samsung set to reclaim global smartphone crown in 2026

NEW DELHI: The smartphone crown could be making a familiar return journey. Samsung is expected to reclaim its position as the world’s largest smartphone vendor in 2026, even as the global market heads for a sharp downturn fuelled by soaring memory-chip costs and weaker consumer demand, according to Counterpoint Research.

Counterpoint has cut its outlook for global smartphone shipments, forecasting a 14.3 per cent decline in 2026 as a worsening memory supply crunch pushes up component costs. The squeeze is expected to hit manufacturers operating heavily in price-sensitive segments particularly hard.

Samsung, however, is projected to buck the slide, with smartphone shipments expected to grow 0.8 per cent this year. That would be enough for the South Korean electronics giant to edge past Apple and return to the top of the global smartphone rankings.

The research firm attributes Samsung’s resilience to three advantages: its vertically integrated supply chain, broad product portfolio and established relationships with operators and retailers.

Unlike many competitors, Samsung manufactures key components internally, including memory chips. That gives it greater control over supply and costs at a time when memory prices are putting pressure on smartphone manufacturers’ margins.

“Samsung’s return to the top position comes down to its internal component capabilities, broad portfolio and established operator and retail relationships,” said Yang Wang, principal analyst at Counterpoint.

The forecast comes weeks after Counterpoint reported that Samsung led global smartphone shipments in Q2 2026, supported by demand for its flagship and foldable devices.

The downturn, meanwhile, is expected to put Chinese smartphone brands under greater pressure. Xiaomi, Vivo, Honor and Oppo are particularly exposed because of their strong presence in the mass-market segments where higher component costs can be harder to absorb.

Oppo has already begun scaling back parts of its OnePlus business, while several Chinese manufacturers are reportedly reshaping their portfolios and moving further upmarket to counter rising costs.

Huawei is expected to be among the exceptions, with Counterpoint forecasting meaningful growth as the company benefits from an increasingly self-reliant hardware supply chain developed after years of US sanctions.

The industry’s much-hyped AI push may also not be enough to rescue overall shipment volumes. Counterpoint expects on-device AI features and the anticipated launch of Apple’s foldable iPhone to help manufacturers differentiate premium products and support higher prices, but not trigger a broad upgrade cycle.

The market could face another contraction in 2027 before returning to growth in 2028, suggesting that the current slowdown is more than a temporary wobble.

For Samsung, that makes its expected return to No. 1 all the more striking: the company may be taking back the crown not because the smartphone market is booming, but because its supply-chain muscle is proving particularly valuable when the market is anything but.