Brands
India retail set to hit Rs 200 trillion by 2035, says BCG-RAI report
AI-led transformation and sharp focus segments key to capturing the massive prize.
MUMBAI: India’s retail tills are ringing louder than ever and they’re about to get a whole lot busier. At the Retail Leadership Summit 2026, the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Retailers Association of India (RAI) unveiled their joint report, Winning Codes for Retail 2035: Capturing the Rs 200 Trillion Prize, painting a picture of a sector on steroids, turbocharged by consumption, digital leaps and artificial intelligence.
India remains one of the world’s fastest-growing major economies, clocking 8 per cent GDP growth in 2025 and on course to become the third-largest economy globally by 2030. Private consumption especially in discretionary items and services is the rocket fuel, set to balloon the Indian retail market to nearly Rs 200 trillion over the next decade.
The report doesn’t sugar-coat the challenge, organised retail’s historic outperformance over category growth has narrowed, particularly in offline channels. Translation? The easy wins are drying up, and retailers must get sharper or get left behind.
The winning playbook boils down to three big moves:
Pick your tribe and stick to it Top performers zero in on a clearly defined target segment, make bold trade-offs, and align every decision to deliver a distinct, profitable customer value proposition.
Reinvent the shopping journey Agentic commerce powered by generative AI has already left the lab and entered reality. In urban US markets, nearly 42 per cent of consumers have used GenAI for research and purchases. India’s digital adoption curve is even steeper, so expect AI to reshape discovery, evaluation and buying – especially among Gen Z urban shoppers.
Go all-in on AI, end-to-end Isolated AI pilots deliver 10–15 per cent gains, a full functional transformation across merchandising, supply chain, marketing and service can unlock 40–60 per cent improvements in speed, quality and cost.
BCG’s Abheek Singhi captured the mood, “India’s retail story is an inspiring story, the sector is poised to expand into a nearly Rs 200 trillion opportunity over the next decade… The winners of the future will have sharp differentiated value proposition, at scale use of AI and technology and excellent execution.”
His colleague Bharat Mimani doubled down, “Retail is entering a decisive new phase where AI is no longer a peripheral experiment but a core driver of competitive advantage… Retailers that adopt an end-to-end AI-led functional transformation approach can unlock 40–60 per cent performance gains, far exceeding the incremental impact of isolated use cases.”
RAI leaders echoed the urgency, success in the next decade won’t come from sales growth alone. It will reward retailers who treat transformation as a discipline, rebuild talent and operating models, and deliver consistent trust across channels and price points.
In short, the Rs 200 trillion retail pie is baking fast but only those who combine laser focus, fearless trade-offs and AI as a full organisational overhaul will get the biggest slice. The rest? They might just be left browsing the aisles of yesterday.
