India consumer durables market projected to reach Rs 30-32.5 trillion by 2030

MUMBAI: India’s consumer durables story is warming up, and there is plenty of room for the thermostat to rise. The market is projected to grow 8-10 per cent annually through 2030, reaching Rs 30-32.5 trillion, according to a joint report by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).

The report, titled Home Grown, World Ready: The Next Chapter for India’s Consumer Durables Industry, points to low household penetration, rising incomes and changing household structures as key engines of future demand. Yet the opportunity is not simply about selling more appliances; the report sees a larger opportunity for India to build more of what goes inside them.

Only around two in 10 Indian households currently own a washing machine, compared with seven to 10 in 10 households across the regional markets examined. Refrigerator penetration stands at around 45-50 per cent, television penetration at 70-75 per cent and room air-conditioner (RAC) penetration at just 10-15 per cent.

The consumer base is also changing. The share of affluent-plus households is expected to rise from around 21 per cent to 26 per cent by 2030, while around seven in 10 Indian households are projected to be nuclear by then.

That combination could put more appliances on household wish lists. Loan origination value for consumer durables is projected to more than double from around Rs 15.7 trillion in FY25 to Rs 34-36 trillion by FY30. The resulting market expansion could create an additional Rs 4-5 trillion opportunity for domestic value addition over the next five years.

Localisation is another major piece of the puzzle. The report estimates that India currently captures around 50-55 per cent of its domestic value-add potential in consumer durables. That could rise to 65-70 per cent by 2030 as domestic component manufacturing expands.

Bill-of-materials localisation currently ranges from around 25 per cent to 70 per cent across major categories. TVs and RACs sit towards the lower end, while refrigerators and washing machines have higher levels of localisation.

However, some of the industry’s most critical pieces still come from global supply chains. TV display panels, RAC compressors, refrigerator insulation and washing-machine motors remain areas of dependence. Across seven tracked HS codes, annual imports of consumer-durable components are estimated at around Rs 19,400 crore, with RACs accounting for approximately Rs 16,300 crore.

BCG Managing Director and Senior Partner Abheek Singhi said the next phase would require deeper capabilities in components, technology, product design and manufacturing, alongside the scale of India’s domestic market.

“The priority is to make localisation commercially viable, build scale and cost competitiveness, and enable Indian companies to move from manufacturing for India to designing and building for the world,” he said.

RACs are expected to remain the fastest-growing major category, with the market projected to expand from Rs 4-4.5 trillion in 2025 to Rs 7-7.5 trillion by 2030. Penetration is expected to rise from around 10-15 per cent to 20-25 per cent over the same period.

The refrigerator market is projected to reach Rs 4.6-5.1 trillion by 2030, while the washing-machine market is expected to reach Rs 4-4.5 trillion.

More demand, however, does not necessarily mean runaway prices. The report tracked 23 specific consumer-durable models between September 2024 and September 2026 and found real price declines of 8-13 per cent across TVs, RACs, washing machines and refrigerators after adjusting for inflation.

That price sensitivity could matter as India looks beyond its own living rooms and towards global markets. The global consumer durables market is projected to reach $900-950 billion by 2030, but India currently accounts for less than 1 per cent of global consumer durables trade.

Indian consumer-durable exports have grown at around 15 per cent annually, although they remain concentrated in nearby markets. SAARC countries and the UAE together account for more than half of India’s exports, while the country’s presence remains limited in the world’s top 10 import markets.

The cost equation is another hurdle. The report estimates that China enjoys a 10-15 per cent landed-cost advantage over India in RAC exports, attributing the gap to factors including scale, backward integration, material costs, technology, policy support and logistics.

There is also a technology gap to close. Indian consumer-durable companies invest less than 1 per cent of revenue in R&D, compared with 1-4 per cent globally, according to the report.

AI presents a similar paradox: plenty of optimism, but a smaller pool of readiness. Around 88 per cent of Indian CEOs surveyed said they were more optimistic about AI’s return on investment than 12 months earlier, compared with 82 per cent globally.

Yet only around 5 per cent of Indian CEOs were classified as AI “Trailblazers”, against 12 per cent globally. The report defines Trailblazers as CEOs showing high levels of confidence, investment, workforce upskilling, pressure to deliver and excitement or preparedness around AI.

For India’s consumer durables industry, therefore, the next growth cycle is shaping up as more than a demand story. The bigger test will be whether rising household consumption can be matched by deeper local manufacturing, stronger R&D, lower costs and enough technological capability to turn “Made in India” into “Made for the world”.