MAM
GroupM downgrades India’s ad expenditure growth to 6.6% in 2012
MUMBAI: A weakening Indian economy has prompted GroupM to cut by almost half its India ad growth forecast for 2012, from 12 per cent to 6.6 per cent.
In its mid-year forecast, GroupM has downgraded advertising expenditure in 2012 to Rs 355.92 billion, from its January estimate of Rs 373.97 billion. The WPP agency had pegged the ad spend size in India in 2011 at Rs 333.88 billion, up 13 per cent from the earlier year.
What has darkened the ad horizon is a feeble growth in the first half of the year with inflation staying stubborn, rupee depreciating and government not moving forward on policies. Though elections are source of additional advertising, political spending limits per candidate have been applied more strictly. “This resulted in the spends being lower than expected,” the new forecast said.
GroupM, however, expects ad demand to improve in the second half. “This is most likely to happen with larger categories like Telecom which reduced expenditure considerably in the first half of the year: most of the pullback has been among large national advertisers rather than regional players. Perhaps as a result, there is a reduction seen in the more premium media properties such as sponsorships,” the report said.
Television
Though television is the most affected medium by first-half pullbacks, it will still constitute the highest share with 41.6 per cent amongst other mediums.
The growth of the medium is expected to be 5.6 per cent to gross Rs 148.12 billion.
“2011 had the cricket World Cup which attracted an incremental Rs 8.5 billion. This was obviously expected to drop out in 2012, but April-May IPL cricket did not perform as strongly as previously to compensate. In addition, the Telecom category cut down spends substantially in the first half of the year. Financial services have been adversely affected by poorer economic conditions here as elsewhere in the world. Even consumer durables spent less in the first half of 2012 than the prior year period. Occupancy of premium inventory has decreased with advertisers choosing to stay with safer tried-and-tested formats,” the report says.
GroupM, however, expects a bounce back in 2013 and predicts ad spend growth to climb 14 per cent that year.
Print (dailies) growth is expected to be a little less than formerly expected. The regional publications have expanded into new markets and have actively developed local advertisers, largely in the retail categories. They have, therefore, added some ad volume, even though the larger national advertiser categories have scaled back investments.
GroupM predicts the medium to have 39.2 per cent share with five per cent growth in 2012. Print, as a medium, is expected to grow to Rs 139.68 billion from Rs 133.03 billion in 2011.
Radio
The radio segment has been impacted by the slowdown in the first half. Phase III FM auction has been pushed to 2013, so delaying this uplift to next year. Individual markets have seen very varied demand according to local retail conditions. The medium will have 4.5 per cent share and is likely to see 9 per cent growth, higher than TV, newspaper and outdoor.
Ad growth in the radio industry is expected to be 9 per cent, touching Rs 15.89 billion. The medium is expected to grow at 10 per cent in 2013.
Outdoor
The agency has also revised its 2012 outdoor growth forecast from nine to six per cent. Reduced consumer demands and the current global turmoil have caused 2012 budget reductions in categories including telecom, automotive, banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), real estate, and FMCG vis-a-vis 2011. The trend began in 2011 and continued into the first quarter of 2012, which is considered to be seasonally very important for BFSI.
In the first half of 2012, there has, however, been increased investment from the entertainment and media category in OOH medium. The reduction is affecting the metro markets but not the non–metros and smaller towns, where demand from local advertisers in a few categories like jewelry, apparel, Education, real estate and construction has offset the withdrawal of national activity. Smaller towns are actually seeing ad demand rise as much as 25 per cent.
OOH ad industry is estimated to be around Rs 17.98 billion in 2012, which will grow to Rs 19.06 billion by next year.
Digital medium ad growth remains unchanged since the last forecast. Given that it typically has smaller outlays and is very response-based, it has not been affected like other media. Digital medium with share of 5.5 per cent is expected to grow at 30 per cent, more than any other medium.
Retail Media and Cinema
Retail Media and Cinema are also performing as expected. Even though telecom advertising fell in the first half, categories like FMCG and durables have risen in these media. As previously envisaged, destinations in smaller markets have experienced raised demand of about 10 per cent. Leisure destinations have also expanded their presence in these smaller markets that has helped drive spends, the report said.
MAM
VML India lands two finalist spots at Cairns Hatchlings 2026
The Mumbai agency is back in Australia with two teams, a UN brief and 24 hours to impress
MUMBAI: VML India is heading to Australia again. The Mumbai-based creative agency has secured two finalist spots at the Cairns Hatchlings 2026 competition, one in the Audio category and one in Design, making it the only Indian agency to have reached the finals in both editions of the contest since its launch in 2025.
Four people will make the trip. Senior copywriter Shilpi Dey and senior art director Raj Thakkar will compete in Audio. Art directors Shabbir and Shruti Negi will go head-to-head with the world’s best in Design. The finals take place at the Cairns Convention Centre from 13th May, culminating in an awards ceremony on 15th May.
The work that got them there is worth examining. For the Audio category, Dey and Thakkar tackled a brief for LIVE LIKE MMAD with a campaign called Inner Voice, Interrupted. Using spatial audio techniques, the campaign recreates the overwhelming self-doubt that descends after a long workday, physically panning negative thoughts left and right before cutting the noise entirely to reveal a confident inner voice. Strategically targeted at commuters via Spotify during evening rush hours, the campaign reframes the hours after work as an opportunity for personal growth and charitable action.
For the Design category, Shabbir and Negi worked on a brief for Canteen’s Bandanna Day, a campaign highlighting how cancer pushes teenagers out of their own defining moments. Using a pixelated design language to create stark contrast between a blurred world of isolation and a focused world of connection, the campaign, titled The Flipside of Cancer, shows teenagers fading into the background of birthdays, skateparks and school proms. As a Canteen bandanna appears, the blur flips and the teenager snaps back into sharp focus.
Kalpesh Patankar, group chief creative officer of VML India, made no attempt to disguise his satisfaction. “We are immensely proud to see our teams consistently excel on the Cairns Hatchlings platform since its inception,” he said. “They have masterfully tackled challenging briefs across diverse categories, demonstrating both layered storytelling and a unique creative approach. This exceptional teamwork is truly inspiring.”
Dey and Thakkar, returning to the finals after last year’s run, were candid about the demands of the audio medium. “It’s one of the most demanding mediums, where we only have a few seconds to capture a listener’s world with sound alone, so absolute clarity is essential,” they said. “The true measure of creative work is its ability to create positive change, and our audio submission was made to help those who need it most while encouraging people to silence the inner voices that hold them back.”
Shabbir and Negi, competing in Design for the first time, described the experience as “a completely different beast.” “We see it as an opportunity to showcase our expertise, raise the bar, and challenge ourselves in new ways, while also learning from creative minds from across the globe,” they said.
In Australia, the four finalists will face a live 24-hour brief from the United Nations before presenting in a live pitch session. Twenty-four hours, one brief, one shot. VML India has been here before. It knows exactly what is at stake.
