Budget
Guest Column: The ‘make or break’ budget
The recent cash ban has sucked a lot of momentum out of one the world’s fastest growing economy. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley is meticulously examining ways which can boost the slumping economy, as a result of s. No budget is effortlessly manageable, but 2017 is certainly taking challenges to a new high with several global and national factors to take note of.
Arun Jaitley should be immaculately prepared as this is one of the most awaited budgets ever, in the history of India. The fourth budget of the NDA term, this budget demands to be the beautiful balance of crisis management and future prospectus. The government, a couple of months ago was of the notion that they will be able to reap a humongous amount of money as unreturned old currency notes. In the government’s perspective, this sum could have been later invested in infrastructural development along with other progressive measures. This plan seems to have misfired with a huge chunk of ‘unamounted’ currency finding its way back to the banks. This concern has to be dealt with caution, immediately.
One factor that can be attributed to the demonetisation effect is the increased collection of direct taxes. This may further culminate in more of such fraudulent cases giving into the pressure and larger chunks of money being deposited in the banks as some kind of income.
Expectations are riding high as government may benefit the salaried class by increasing the margin of the income tax slab. Taking into consideration the existing miniature base of the tax payers in the country, many experts have warned the government against taking such a move.
The government clearly has to strike a balance between staying loyal to the fiscal deficit roadmap and borrowing large amounts to spend on improving the economy. As a nation that’s pacing towards becoming a global power, the minister will have to bring down the fiscal deficit to three per cent of GDP in FY18 to maintain the stability. Many have observed based on the current scenario that the government may announce a target of 3.5 per cent which is slightly more achievable.
By far, the hardest challenge would be to make up for the crack caused by the private sector’s unwillingness to invest in the economy due to debt-heavy balance sheets and insufficient demand. Also, scrapping the fiscal plans would require exaltation by rating agencies will need time to be set up. The alternative would not be a cakewalk either; not loosening the grip on fiscal deficit could weaken demand in the economy more.
For capital markets, it’s a mixed scenario. On a positive note, there might be some extra incentives for new investors in equity markets. But as a flipside, it is being assumed that the government may increase the threshold for long term capital gains to three years from the current one year. The current system favors long term investors as they do not have to pay long term capital gains when they sell. This privilege is often taken advantage of by several high net worth individuals to launder their unaccounted income, by counterfeiting long term capital gains.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi mentioned that the financial markets must make a fair contribution to nation-building through taxes and we are looking forward to a revolutionary budget that’s inclusive of all.
(Santosh Nair is the editor of Moneycontrol. The views expressed here are personal, and Indiantelevision.com need not necessarily subscribe to them)
MUMBAI: Anuj Singhal, managing editor at CNBC- AWAAZ and CNBC BAJAR, operates at the sharp end of India’s business news ecosystem. With over two decades in business journalism, he has earned credibility for decoding policy, markets and macro trends for millions of Hindi-speaking investors. Equal parts newsroom leader and market analyst, he shapes editorial direction while anchoring flagship shows that break down the economy, politics and corporate India in real time.
Known for cutting through jargon and hype, Singhal blends data, discipline and clarity — a mix that has made him one of the most trusted voices in Hindi business news.
In this interaction, he discusses the Union Budget, trade deals, newsroom strategy and what truly moves markets and ratings.
• What was the single most market-moving announcement in this Budget, and why?
The most market-moving element was the clear commitment to fiscal consolidation without compromising capex. The glide path on fiscal deficit reassured bond markets and foreign investors, while sustained public investment kept growth expectations intact. That balance removed a big overhang for both equities and debt.
• Do you see this Budget as growth-oriented, fiscally cautious, or politically calibrated?
This Budget is growth-led but fiscally disciplined. It avoids overt populism, stays within macro guardrails, and prioritises medium-term competitiveness over short-term optics. Politically, it is restrained; economically, it is deliberate. The message is clear: stability over spectacle.
• How is CNBC-AWAAZ programming different, especially in decoding trade deal impact?
CNBC-AWAAZ goes beyond headline reaction. We translate policy into portfolio impact — sector by sector, stock by stock.
On trade agreements, our focus is on:
-Earnings visibility
-Export competitiveness
-Currency implications
-Margin sustainability
We don’t treat trade deals as political milestones. We decode them as profit-and-loss events for corporate India and map them to FY earnings trajectories.
• Which sectors look like clear winners and laggards over the next 12–18 months?
The next 12–18 months favour sectors aligned with structural spending and supply-side strengthening.
– Clear beneficiaries:
Capital goods and infrastructure
Manufacturing linked to export chains and PLI ecosystems
Power, defence, and logistics
– Relative laggards:
Consumption segments dependent on immediate demand revival
Businesses facing margin pressure from global volatility or pricing power erosion
This is not a momentum-driven market environment. It is execution-driven. Balance-sheet strength and order visibility will matter more than narrative.
• One headline to sum up this Budget 2026 for India Inc?
“Steady Hands, Long-Term Vision: A Budget That Rewards Discipline Over Drama”.
• What editorial filters do you apply before calling something ‘market-positive’ or ‘negative’?
We apply three structured filters:
– First: Earnings translation — does this materially change earnings visibility or cash flow outlook?
– Second: Time horizon — is the impact immediate, cyclical, or structural?
– Third: Valuation context — good news priced in or not.
If a policy doesn’t move earnings or risk perception, we don’t oversell it.
• How has business news consumption changed around big policy events?**
There has been a clear behavioural shift. They’re less interested in what was said, more in what it means for their money. There’s also a clear shift toward second-screen consumption, with digital platforms complementing live TV. The audience seeks sharper accountability. Viewers no longer accept broad optimism or pessimism — they want frameworks, numbers, and sector mapping.
• CNBC-AWAAZ decisively outperformed on Budget Day. What editorial and distribution choices mattered most?
Three deliberate strategic choices:
– Preparation depth:
We build scenarios months in advance — deficit ranges, sectoral incentives, tax calibrations — so we’re ready with analysis the moment numbers are announced.
– Language of impact:
We translate macro policy into investor-friendly Hindi without diluting complexity. That bridges accessibility and sophistication.
– Integrated distribution:
Television, YouTube, and digital platforms operate as one editorial grid, not parallel silos. This ensures continuity of narrative.We stayed analytical while others stayed reactive.
• How different is your YouTube audience from your TV audience?
The behavioural differences are subtle but important. TV audiences prioritise authority, structured debate, and context. YouTube audiences want speed, clarity, and actionable insights — often sharper, sometimes more opinionated. However, both share one expectation: accuracy. The format evolves; the trust benchmark does not.
• How do you retain viewers after the budget speech ends?
By shifting from announcements to implications.Retention comes from shifting the narrative from announcement to implication. We break down sectoral breakouts, stock-level impact, and what to do next. The speech is just the trigger; analysis is the destination.
• Is Budget Day your biggest traffic day?
It is one of the biggest — but more importantly, it is among the deepest in engagement. Viewers spend longer durations, revisit segments, and seek follow-up programming. That indicates behavioural trust, not just traffic.
• What’s the first thing you personally track on Budget Day — the speech or the markets?
The markets. They’re the fastest truth-teller. The speech explains intent; markets reveal interpretation.
• Your personal Budget-day ritual?
Early morning prep, minimal distractions, and once the speech begins, complete immersion. For me, Budget Day is less about reaction and more about reading between the lines.
• What drove your Budget-day ratings dominance, and how are Budget and trade deals shaping markets now?
Our dominance came from credibility, consistency, and clarity.
As for markets, both the Budget and recent trade deals are reinforcing a narrative of policy stability and global integration, which supports valuations even amid global volatility.
For Singhal, the market is the final judge. Policies can promise and speeches can persuade, but prices reveal what investors truly believe. As India’s investor class grows more informed and more demanding, business journalism is shifting from commentary to calibration. The premium is on clarity, context and credibility. In a landscape flooded with noise, the real edge lies in interpretation. In the end, the markets listen to numbers, not narratives , and Singhal’s craft is helping viewers tell the difference.
