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Zenith Optimedia predicts slow global ad recovery
The advertising sector in the US is not likely to recover in a hurry.
While hope of a quick 2002 turnaround is now fading for the advertising fraternity everywhere, recovery is already underway in Asia excluding Japan, according to Zenith Optimedia. The agency, in its advertising expenditure forecast, says advertisers are still reluctant to make long term spending plans.
In the Asia Pacific, the agency says, ad expenditure across major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor) is expected to rise marginally from USD 64,128 to USD 66,736 next year to USD 69,703 by 2004. Zenith is pessimistic about Japan’s ad recovery, but says Asia ex Japan will grow at 7 per cent constant in 2002 (December: 3 per cent), with 2003 and 2004 averaging 6 per cent.
Gross advertising billings Q1 2002 Vs Q1 2001 %
Country
Real growth however remains distant, according to Zenith’s estimates. 2002 bottom line at -0.5% current and -1.7% constant is fractionally down from December numbers, says the study. Asia and North America are having a slightly better 2002 than they expected six months ago, but Europe has downgraded from 1.7% current-price growth this year to -0.7% shrinkage following a tougher than expected first quarter.
Except for the US which shows a marginal hike, gross ad billing in Q1 2002 across Europe and Asia has taken a dip over the same period last year. By the end of 2002, the five big European economies will have shed 8 per cent of their 2000 ad volume in real terms. According to Zenith’s forecast, they will have done well to replace 5 per cent of this by 2004 end, by when all five could be back on the health track.
Global advertising shrank by over six per cent in real terms in 2001, twice as deep and double the speed of the ad recession ten years ago. The global annual ad market for major media peaked in 2000 and Zenith expects it will trough in 2002 having contracted by $23 billion in real terms, of which it expects only $3 billion back in 2003 and a further $7 billion in 2004.
In North America, media fragmentation – the exodus of large network audiences to myriad cable channels is causing media cost inflation even when demand is moderate, says the agency. In the US, says the study, consumer confidence remains high and inflation low. The agency has projected a 1.2 per cent current-price decline in major media adspend for 2002, a slight upgrade on its last projection. In 2001, the decline was 6.1 per cent. In the US, the network television market enjoyed a well-sold February Olympics and generally firm airtime pricing thanks in large part to audiences being kept in short supply by network TV losing share to cable channels. The recent network television ‘upfront’ (advance sales for the new season beginning September) has been quite strong, but may not guarantee the networks a healthy increase in revenues in 2003, the study points out.
NEW DELHI: Hamdard Laboratories gathered a cross-section of India’s achievers in New Delhi on Friday, handing out the Hakeem Abdul Hameed Excellence Awards to figures who have left their mark across healthcare, education, sport, public service and the arts.
The ceremony, attended by minister of state for defence Sanjay Seth and senior officials from the ministry of Ayush, celebrated individuals whose work blends professional success with a sense of public purpose. It was as much a roll call of achievement as it was a reminder that influence is not measured only in profits or podiums, but in people reached and lives improved.
Among the headline awardees was Alakh Pandey, founder and chief executive of PhysicsWallah, recognised for turning affordable digital learning into a mass movement. On the sporting front, Arjuna Awardee and kabaddi player Sakshi Puniya was honoured for her contribution to the game and for pushing women’s participation onto bigger stages.
The cultural spotlight fell on veteran lyricist and poet Santosh Anand, whose songs have echoed across generations of Hindi cinema. At 97, Anand accepted the honour with characteristic humility, reflecting on a life shaped by perseverance and hope.
Healthcare honours spanned both modern and traditional systems. Manoj N. Nesari was recognised for strengthening Ayurveda’s place in national and global health frameworks. Padma shri Mohammed Abdul Waheed was honoured for his research-backed work in Unani medicine, while padma shri Mohsin Wali received recognition for his long-standing contribution to patient-centred care.
Education and social development also featured prominently. Padma shri Zahir Ishaq Kazi was honoured for decades of work in education, while former Meghalaya superintendent of Police T. C. Chacko was recognised for public service. Goonj founder Anshu Gupta received an award for his dignity-centred rural development initiatives, and the Hunar Shakti Foundation was honoured for empowering women and young girls through skill development.
The Lifetime Achievement Award went to former IAS officer Shailaja Chandra for her long career in public healthcare and governance, particularly in the traditional systems under Ayush.
Speaking at the event, Hamdard chairman Abdul Majeed said the awards were a tribute to those who combine excellence with empathy. “These awardees reflect Hakeem Sahib’s belief that healthcare, education and public service must ultimately serve humanity,” he said.
Minister Seth struck a forward-looking note, saying India’s young population gives the country a unique opportunity to become a global destination for learning, health and wellness by 2047.
The ceremony also featured the trailer launch of Unani Ki Kahaani, an upcoming documentary starring actor Jim Sarbh, set to premiere on Discovery on 11 February.
Instituted in memory of Unani scholar and educationist Hakeem Abdul Hameed, the awards have grown into a national platform that celebrates those building a more inclusive and resilient India. For one evening at least, the spotlight was not just on success, but on service with substance.
