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Lodestar’s ‘Reel Pointer’ – an overview
MUMBAI: Media agency Lodestar had an enviable outing during the EMVIES ’04 where the agency bagged the coveted Agency of the Year trophy. The rich haul the agency had at the EMVIES included the gold in the category of Best Media Research for the case study titled the Reel Pointer.
Reel Pointer is a regression model that uses both viewership and non-viewership factors to predict ratings of blockbuster films on television. Lodestar has fine-tuned the software now that it introduced one year ago.
While TV measurement software does not account for all the factors that can impact a film’s rating on TV. For example, a spot on a blockbuster like Gadar has the potential to get an advertiser three times as many TVRs as a spot on a popular soap like Koi Apna Sa on Zee TV. This means that if an outlay of Rs.1 million on Gadar can get 47 GRPs (All individuals C&S Mumbai), it will be as much as 200 per cent more than that achieved by the same monies on Koi Apna Sa.
But huge outlays are not without huge stakes. The question of accountability remains unanswered – how does a media planner use more than his intuition to recommend a film? That demands a tool designed exclusively to predict a film’s rating based on an analysis of its past performance and future environment. Such a tool will make it easier to buy with the media buyer getting a Cost Per Rating Point (CPRP) benchmark. That helps an easy sale also as the client responds with more warmth to a movie that is a proven performer.
The tool works by taking into account the factors that affect the TRP of the film. Box-office collections, ‘recency’ of the movie, number of repeats, promos, channel, day-part, and day are the factors that influence the TRP. The model is based on linear multiple regression which draws a relationship between the TRP and the independent variables.
Reel Pointer aids the decision maker at 2 levels. At the planning stage, it predicts and validates TRP for a blockbuster movie. A plan can be optimised and spots distributed accordingly. At the buying level, it provides a CPRP benchmark that can be used to leverage a cost-effective buy from the channel.
Take the case of a plan on Star Plus for Mumbai optimised for all individuals, SEC ABC, C&S built with conventional tools and then with the Reel Pointer advantage.
Plan 1: This plan has two of the top programmes on Star Plus – Kyunki Saans…, Kahin Kissi Roz and a blockbuster film Dil Chahta Hai. Assuming that Dil Chahta Hai will achieve at least as much as the top programme and also cost as much, a rating of 13 has been assigned to it. The planner knows that the blockbuster will deliver, but he does not have validating data for support. He hedges his bets and spreads spots equally across all programmes. The cumulative GRP rises from 26 to 42 and peaks at 68. The cost builds up to Rs 3 million.
Plan 2: Reel Pointer predicts for the planner a TRP of 12.4 on Dil Chahta Hai. Negotiating the rate down by 20 per cent, he can take more spots on the blockbuster and achieve 12 per cent more deliveries with a 13 per cent savings.
Some recent Reel Pointer predictions Vs Actual TRPs
Film
Actual TRP
Predicted Range
Lagaan
14
13.2 – 16.8
Dil Chahta Hai
11.7
10.8 – 14.4
Baghban
8.9
6.4 – 9.9
Saathiya
8.1
6.1 – 9.7
The Hero
9.9
9.7 – 13.2
Hungama
6.2
5.2 – 8.7
Awara Paagal Deewana
6.4
3.4 – 7.0
Hum Tumhare Hain Sanam
2.9
1.1 – 4.7
Tere Naam
8.2
6.2 – 9.8
Bhoot
5.1
4.3 – 7.8
Jhankaar Beats
2.9
1.1 – 4.3
Qualitative factors outside the regression model may also influence the performance of a film. As such, the predictions derived from Reel Pointer should not be taken in isolation but more as a decision-making tool. A good prediction will always overlay the influence of other factors on the Reel Pointer predictions.
For example, a movie that is not a big draw at the box office may still be well received by the television audiences. Television gives them a chance to see a film that may not have been worth the effort of watching in the cinema hall. The TV rating in such cases will lie closer to the upper end of the prediction interval.
“If movies are set to be the next show on the programming screen, Reel Pointer vision will show them up for what they really are. A blockbuster at the box office is not necessarily a hit on television. And if it is, Reel Pointer will make sure the advertiser does not miss the best part,” says Lodestar Media group leader Shrikant Shenoy.
NEW DELHI: Hamdard Laboratories gathered a cross-section of India’s achievers in New Delhi on Friday, handing out the Hakeem Abdul Hameed Excellence Awards to figures who have left their mark across healthcare, education, sport, public service and the arts.
The ceremony, attended by minister of state for defence Sanjay Seth and senior officials from the ministry of Ayush, celebrated individuals whose work blends professional success with a sense of public purpose. It was as much a roll call of achievement as it was a reminder that influence is not measured only in profits or podiums, but in people reached and lives improved.
Among the headline awardees was Alakh Pandey, founder and chief executive of PhysicsWallah, recognised for turning affordable digital learning into a mass movement. On the sporting front, Arjuna Awardee and kabaddi player Sakshi Puniya was honoured for her contribution to the game and for pushing women’s participation onto bigger stages.
The cultural spotlight fell on veteran lyricist and poet Santosh Anand, whose songs have echoed across generations of Hindi cinema. At 97, Anand accepted the honour with characteristic humility, reflecting on a life shaped by perseverance and hope.
Healthcare honours spanned both modern and traditional systems. Manoj N. Nesari was recognised for strengthening Ayurveda’s place in national and global health frameworks. Padma shri Mohammed Abdul Waheed was honoured for his research-backed work in Unani medicine, while padma shri Mohsin Wali received recognition for his long-standing contribution to patient-centred care.
Education and social development also featured prominently. Padma shri Zahir Ishaq Kazi was honoured for decades of work in education, while former Meghalaya superintendent of Police T. C. Chacko was recognised for public service. Goonj founder Anshu Gupta received an award for his dignity-centred rural development initiatives, and the Hunar Shakti Foundation was honoured for empowering women and young girls through skill development.
The Lifetime Achievement Award went to former IAS officer Shailaja Chandra for her long career in public healthcare and governance, particularly in the traditional systems under Ayush.
Speaking at the event, Hamdard chairman Abdul Majeed said the awards were a tribute to those who combine excellence with empathy. “These awardees reflect Hakeem Sahib’s belief that healthcare, education and public service must ultimately serve humanity,” he said.
Minister Seth struck a forward-looking note, saying India’s young population gives the country a unique opportunity to become a global destination for learning, health and wellness by 2047.
The ceremony also featured the trailer launch of Unani Ki Kahaani, an upcoming documentary starring actor Jim Sarbh, set to premiere on Discovery on 11 February.
Instituted in memory of Unani scholar and educationist Hakeem Abdul Hameed, the awards have grown into a national platform that celebrates those building a more inclusive and resilient India. For one evening at least, the spotlight was not just on success, but on service with substance.
