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NEW DELHI : After nine years of rule, the UPA is set for a massive defeat. If polls were held today, the United Progressive Alliance will get a mare 136 Lok Sabha seats, according to a countrywide survey done by ABP News-Nilesen. The main Opposition NDA will garner 206 seats while others parties will get 167 seats.
Neither the United Progressive Alliance nor the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will get the magic numbers in general elections if it were to take place today. Voters are not in mood to see Congress-led UPA government back in power. In the 2009 general elections, Congress alone had won 209 seats.
Left parties will get 34 seats in election, said the survey. The NDA may try to form government but will need another 66 seats in their support.
Zonal performance:
UPA is winning 33 seats in East and 36 in North in comparison to NDA?s 49 and 67. In South UPA gets 36 seats against NDA?s 10 seats. The major players in southern states are the southern parties with 75 seats.
Modi?s effect is visible in western states. With 80 seats, the NDA is leading the zone. Congress will win 36 seats.
Vote Share:
UPA will garner 26% of votes, and NDA is getting 27% votes. The other parties will be the most voted parties in the country. A whooping 41% votes are spread among Other parties while Left gets a meager 6% votes.
Overall, 31% of respondents are intending to vote for BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas 20% are intending for INC. 74% of those who voted for INC during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for INC if Lok sabha elections are held now; 26% are moving away from INC, out of which 9% are intending to vote for BJP. Whereas for BJP, 90% will stick with them and only 2% intend to move away from BJP to INC.
ALL INDIA FORECAST - MAY 2013
|
Seats, Nos
|
Overall
|
East
|
North
|
South
|
West
|
| UPA |
136
|
33
|
36
|
36
|
31
|
| NDA |
206
|
49
|
67
|
10
|
80
|
| Left |
34
|
21
|
0
|
13
|
0
|
| Others |
167
|
39
|
48
|
75
|
5
|
| Total |
543
|
142
|
151
|
134
|
116
|
|
Vote share %
|
Overall
|
East
|
North
|
South
|
West
|
| UPA |
26
|
18
|
26
|
23
|
37
|
| NDA |
27
|
22
|
32
|
13
|
42
|
| Left |
6
|
14
|
0
|
9
|
0
|
| Others |
41
|
46
|
42
|
55
|
21
|
| Total |
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
Will vote for this party, if General Election happens today
|
Party voted during last Lok Sabha elections held in May 2009
|
||
|
Total
|
BJP
|
INC
|
|
| Base |
33408
|
7742
|
6918
|
|
|
|
|
|
| BJP |
31
|
90
|
9
|
| INC |
20
|
2
|
74
|
1. Overall, 31% of respondents are intending to vote for BJP, if the Lok Sabha elections are held now, whereas 20% are intending for INC.
2. 74% of those who voted for INC during 2009 Lok Sabha elections, are still intending to vote for INC if Lok sabha elections are held now; 26% are moving away from INC, out of which 9% are intending to vote for BJP. Whereas for BJP, 90% will stick with them and only 2% intend to move away from BJP to INC.
Sampling and Methodology:
The target respondent was male / female, 18 years & above.
Male : Female ratio (64:36)
Large scale quantitative study
Nationwide Coverage across 152 Parliamentary Constituencies in 21 States/UTs of India. In each Parliamentary constituency, 2 Assembly Constituencies were sampled and a total 33408 people were interviewed.
All interviews were door to door interviews carried out in a face to face setting
Interviews were conducted using largely a structured questionnaire
The complete field work was carried out in the period, 1st May to 10th May 2013.
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