Mumbai: Zee Entertainment (Z IN) posted ad. revenue drop of 3.5 per cent YoY in H1, as demand environment was volatile despite recovery in ad spend. We estimate H2FY24E to report ad spend growth of mere 5-6 per cent YoY, as large portion of spends could be diverted to sports due to the Cricket World Cup (CWC). Subscription revenue was strong due to NTO 3.0, which led to price hikes after three years. Expect growth to be in the range of 7-8 per cent YoY in H2FY24E as well. Overall revenue grew a sharp 20.2 per cent YoY, largely led by performance of Gadar 2, excluding which overall revenue grew mere 5.4 per cent YoY. Zee5 also reported a revenue growth of 59 per cent YoY to Rs 2,652mn, helped by a syndication deal. Z gained viewership share in linear TV too, as its share grew 90bps QoQ to 17.9 per cent, helped by gain in selective regional genres.
Probability of merger going through high
Z’s share price performance will largely be led by valuation re-rating, hinged on the merger with Sony. The recent order passed by SAT allows Punit Goenka to remain the CEO of the merged entity, but the SEBI may continue to investigate Punit Goenka. As per our assessment (https://tinyurl.com/2wu5bxc7), the probability of the merger going through is high, with or without Punit Goenka, unless he does not change his stance (maintaining his view that he will give utmost importance to the merger going through for shareholder interest, even if he has to let go of his designation as CEO of the merged entity). Per our legal checks, there is a low likelihood of Sony wanting Goenka to remain as CEO, until the investigation outcome is known; further, the investigation outcome may take 12-15 months and Sony may not wait that long for the merger to be executed. This potentially increases the risk for Z/Sony merger, which may lead to valuations being under check.
Valuation: Reiterate Buy; TP unchanged at Rs 340
We reiterate buy with SoTP-TP of Rs 340 (unchanged) after factoring in merger synergies and potential medium-term play backed by the strength of Z and Sony in the TV and OTT businesses. We assume a cash infusion of $1.5bn by Sony and value the merged company broadcasting business at 20x (unchanged) one-year forward P/E and the OTT business at 4.0x one-year forward EV/sales. Our PAT estimate incorporates potential OTT losses.
The credit for this article goes to Elara Capital Sr VP - research analyst (media, consumer discretionary & internet) Karan Taurani.
