Indiantelevision.com Team

(17 August 2007 5:30 pm)

MUMBAI: Euro RSCGs forecasting tool based on consumer insights, the Predictameter has turned the spotlight on the fate of 30 movies to be released in next four months.

According to the Predictameter, 2007 will not be as hot as 2006. Infact, this will be a year of flops and average grossers, no super hits and a few hits.

A large percentage of respondents indicated that Chak De India would at best be an average grosser and Saanvariyan, the much touted launch vehicle of Ranbir and Sonam would just about break even at the turnstiles. Other films deemed to be about average grossers include- The big budget Om Shanti Om and Ram Gopal Varma Ki Aag among others.

It has been predicted that Heyy Babyy, Sajid Khan's directorial venture will do well at the box office. The other films expected to do well this year are Jodha Akbar and Darling.

According to the findings of the study, one of the biggest releases of the year, Aaja Nachle (Madhuri Dixit's comeback) has been deemed a flop apart from Kaafila (already released), Laaga Chunari Mein Daag and Drona. Other movies covered in the study are Dhamaal, Speed, Aggar, Love Story 2050, Buddha Mar Gaya, Victoria No 203.

To predict the fate of the movies to be released in 2007 a study was conducted in five markets; Mumbai, Delhi, Lucknow, Bangalore and Ahmedabad. The respondents were first exposed to critical information about each movie before their opinions were recorded.

Launched in 2006, Euro RSCG Predictameter, provides consumer insights into any given category, predicted the fate of 18 movies, at a strike rate of 83 per cent in 2006. In 2006 the fate of movies like Umrao Jaan, Omkara, Golmaaal, Munnabhai, KANK, Salaam-E-Ishq and Nishabd were predicted.

The Predictameter had estimated that mega budget films (Salaam-E-Ishq and Omkara) would not do well at the box office. As was forecast, Omkara recorded box office seat occupancy of merely 25 per cent in the first week of its launch and Umrao Jaan recorded occupancy of just 30-40 per cent and Baabul of 40 per cent.

With the rapid pace at which Bollywood movies are being made and released, every movie just gets one week to perform at the box office. And its just first week box office seat occupancy that makes a movie a hit or a flop, adds the study.