(22 January 2007 6:00 pm)

MUMBAI: Deloitte's Technology, Media and Telecommunications (TMT) industry group has predicted that this year expanding social networks will create a greater need for security and copyright protection technologies

Meanwhile, user-generated content (UGC) from blogs, amateur filmmakers and others will both complement and threaten traditional media outlets.

With global internet traffic reaching capacity, investment in laying new cable or lighting existing fiber may be needed -- but may be stifled by continuing declines in wholesale capacity prices.

Predictions 2007 is a series of three reports examining emerging developments and how they will shape the TMT market. They were written by the Deloitte TMT industry group with input from industry analysts and executives. Each report includes recommendations on how to best take advantage of these trends.

Key trends identified in the reports include:

-- Social Networking Evolves -- Social networks will continue to expand, creating a need for identification improvements, the ability to remove copyrighted material quickly, and making downloads as instantaneous as possible.

-- Digital Storage Expansion Driven by Laws -- Digital storage needs will be impacted by companies' legal obligations to keep years and petabytes worth of data, with costs passed onto the user.

-- Internet Capacity Woes -- With the Internet reaching capacity, investment in laying new cable or lighting existing fiber may be needed

-- but may be stifled by continuing declines in wholesale capacity prices. Solutions will be found when Web surfers rebel after quality of service declines.

-- The Next Killer Application -- Mobile TV may be the next killer application, taking video content off the phone and onto a device with a better screen.

-- Reinvention of TV -- IPTV is poised to launch as a reinvention of television, rather than a pale imitation of current services. Operators could position the service as an affordable way for all content providers to deliver niche media to a growing mass audience, without the commission costs of broadcast-network middlemen.

-- The Consumer as the Media Mogul -- UGC is increasing. Blogs, amateur filmmakers and others are creating content that complements -- or perhaps threatens -- traditional media outlets. Smart media companies will serve up user-generated content as a powerful promotional vehicle and use it as an
effective medium for scouting talent.

-- It's a New Media World After All -- New media metrics are taking over, with old media metrics becoming a thing of the past. Development of comparable statistics will emerge, enabling companies, their customers and their investors to more accurately gauge performance.

-- DVD versus Vod: No Clear Winner in Sight -- Simultaneous availability of movies on DVD and Vod will make them closer competitors.