(13 December 2007 3:20 pm)

MUMBAI: According to a research conducted by The Diffusion Group (TDG), nearly one-third of non-high definition television (HDTV) households in the US are interested in purchasing a new HDTV in the next six months -- a good omen for HDTV manufacturers and, by relation, high-definition DVD manufacturers.

More interestingly, the research found that the characteristics of these HDTV intenders greatly differ from those of current HDTV owners. HDTV intenders tend to be younger, single, more ethnically diverse and have lower annual household incomes than current HDTV owners. In many respects, this is more characteristic of mainstream consumers than the early adopters who today own an HDTV.

While this trend could in theory benefit either Blu-ray or HD DVD, the data suggests otherwise. Among the HDTV Intenders, who are likely to purchase a new HD DVD player in the next six months, 43 per cent prefer the HD DVD player, 27 per cent prefer Blu-ray, and 30 per cent are undecided.

TDG president and principal analyst Michael Greeson says, "The strength of this preference and its correlation to mainstream attributes are notable. Today's high definition DVD owner is likely to be an early adopter with a knack for power gaming; most certainly, tech-sophisticates are not at all mainstream in temperament.

"The next wave of buyers is comprised of early mass-market consumers, a much larger segment with a focus on practical considerations such as price. TDG thinks that the format that can best address the needs of mainstream consumers will emerge as the winner of this format war."

As is the case with the diffusion of most new technologies, TDG believes there will be several waves of HD DVD buyers, each of which will be motivated by different factors. The most immediate wave, which is expected to be exhausted by early 2008, is comprised of the remaining early adopters who have yet to buy a high definition DVD player and show a preference for Blu-ray.

The second and more sizeable wave will consist of early mass-market consumers who, while less enthusiastic about technology per se and very price sensitive, are more likely to favour the HD DVD player .