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As
digital DTH satellite pay TV
services --- yet to compete
directly with cable due to various
content and distribution issues
--- evolve in India, the scenario
is likely to change from this
year onward.
MPA
expects C&S channels’
subscription to climb from $353
million in 2005 to $1.2 billion
by 2010, driven by rate deregulation
after 2008, significant DTH
growth and investment in content,
cable digitisation and IPTV
deployment.
The
C&S channels are expected
to increase their share of the
cable TV distribution pie from
14 per cent in 2005 to 16 per
cent by 2010 and 19 per cent
by 2015, while their share of
the total multichannel video
subscription pie could grow
to more than 21 per cent by
2010 and 25 per cent by 2015.
India’s
market for multichannel video
(cable, DTH, IPTV) could grow
from approximately 65 million
in 2005 to 104 million by 2010
and 125 million by 2015.
This
implies that multichannel video
penetration of TVHH (TV households)
could grow from 57 per cent
in 2005 to 67 per cent by 2010
and 71 per cent by 2015.
“Driven
by DTH pay TV competition and
potential deregulation, we expect
cable to gradually consolidate
last mile ownership, ramp-up
deployment of bundled digital
video and broadband Internet,
and corporatise industry practices,”
MPA states in its industry survey
2006.
DTH
growth is likely to accelerate
after 2006, driven principally
by Subhash Chandra promoted
Dish TV and Tata Sky, followed
by Reliance and Sun TV.
The
competition is likely to intensify
between 2006 – 2010, led
by aggressive retail pricing,
promotions, packaging, STB subsidies
and increased investment in
programming.
Most
of Dish TV’s 750,000 pay
TV subscribers have come from
“cable dark” areas.
Once it obtains access to content
from Star and Sony, Dish TV
subscriber base likely further
accelerate and compete directly
with cable.
While
cable’s low monthly price
is a competitive deterrent to
DTH, aggressive deployers such
as Tata Sky will likely match
cable’s low monthly fees
and subsidize upfront charges,
the survey says.
Digital
DTH pay TV subscribers, according
to MPA, could grow from 750,000
in 2005 to 9.8 million by 2010
and 15.7 million by 2015, implying
a 13 per cent share of the multichannel
video market by 2015, 69 per
cent of the digital pay-TV market,
and 9 per cent of total TV homes.
“India
remains the most significant
and accessible cable & satellite
(C&S) opportunity in the
Asia Pacific region. However,
the regulatory framework, especially
with respect to retail and wholesale
cable TV rates, foreign investment,
broadband competition, and programme
distribution has become increasingly
uneven,” MPA observes.
According
to estimates, India’s C&S
industry turnover grew 18.5
per cent in 2005 to reach $3.6
billion. Out of this, $2.54
billion came from subscription
and $1.02 billion from advertising.
MPA
estimates indicate a total of
855,000 broadband subscribers
as of year ending December 2005,
representing 0.4 per cent household
penetration. ADSL had a 73 per
cent share of the market with
cable at 27 per cent.
According
to the Telecom Regulatory Authority
of India (Trai), broadband subscribers
passed one million in January
2006, but this is significantly
below the “Broadband Policy”
target of three million.
Driven
by long-term last mile cable
consolidation and increased
investment in broadband and
digital, India’s broadband
cable TV industry is projected
to generate $5.1 billion in
subscription by 2010 and $7.1
billion by 2015.
Also
read:
India
pay TV market to be $ 7 billion+
by 2010: MPA
(Rs
44 = 1 US$)
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