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The current state of broadband video: High-level convergence
of media, telecoms and datacoms, where any TV/video service can
be sent across any network (fixed/cellular/wireless), is fragmenting
the distribution market. It is also increasing competition and speeding
commoditisation.
Channel packagers have additional distribution options, creators
can bypass packagers and distributors, and users have more video
access and control (push, pull, P2P). Intelligent edge devices enable
user generated video, and faster than real-time file distribution
via efficient, swarming P2P networks; further augmenting millions
of concurrent P2P users. Residential gateways that control data
access and services, and multi-purpose flat-panel displays, are
the eye of the home environment storm between multiple markets.
Meanwhile the broadcast value net will continue to grow. It will
feature far more segments and increased complexity, from iTV to
IPTV, from channel packagers to distributors. New entrants and substitutes
will threaten incumbent business models and put aggressive pressure
on margins, and innovative new products they diffuse into markets
will change technology performance dimensions and customer buying
criteria.
Firms will need to embrace new offerings in order to find new growth
and remain competitive. They will have to explore ever more niche
content demands, i.e. look to the margins, to aggregate higher volume,
more personal, smaller transactions.
P2P will enable new firms to threaten distributors which fail to
compete on content granularity, volume of sources, and cost. The
ability to media shift may be one characteristic customers use in
adopting P2P-based video services. New P2P video distributors will
force the broadcast value net structure to expand, and increasing
competition margin pressure.
As sustaining innovations,digital video recording systems will
reside within incumbent services or as augmented features of STBs,
online video on demand providers, etc. Commoditisation of basic
features will be accelerated by multiple, competing value players
rushing to diffuse them. This will force some players towards evolved
features, premium markets, and modularisation of previously interdependent
interfaces within the value net.
Freeing users from the TV/home constraint will be achieved with
place shifting solutions via streams, downloads and device transfers.
Adoption characteristics will differ to iTunes/iPod, as video place
shifting requires a user’s total attention, most appropriate for
nomadic scenarios; of which a manifestation may be a preference
for short – bite size – video clips. End-to-end systems with rich
content libraries may prove difficult to negotiate and offer.
Media shifting and P2P blur the professional/amateur divide, making
possible point-to-point distribution of video content and user-generated
videos. In combination with the explosive popularity of blogging,
syndication, and ‘long tail’ economic models, will create a virtuous
circle. Video professionals and niche markets now have a viable
distribution alternative to broadcast, providing them with a direct
sales route and zero costs.
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